I can give a five-word answer to the question posed by the article: COIN does not work, ever. The success or failure of a counter-insurgency is always based on underlying political circumstances in the nation where it takes place, unless the counter-insurgency force is willing to engage in genocidal policies against the insurgents and the population supporting them. Even in cases where COIN seems to work temporarily, (like say, U.S. COIN in the Philippines, the French in Algeria, the Surges in Iraq/Afghanistan, etc.) it's only a matter of time before the insurgency resumes if the underlying political issues are not resolved, especially where a foreign occupier is involved. Napoleon's invasion of Spain was destined to be a failure on the day he deposed the Bourbons.

-Alex