Gamble? Opportunity and circumstances, from which he tried to get the most, as thousand others in France in this period, when everything was open.
Other were shot or beheaded, he went to unprecedented destiny (as did Bernadotte, by the way).
Call it hybris or gamble if you want, but it's more probably an outstanding capacity to grasp the situation, and act upon it, with resolution and a good piece of luck.
And to say that he did not moderate in time, his rather easy - afterwards. Every poker player play too long, even the winner - who will loose next time.