The acid test for the contribution of the Peninsular War to the downfall of Napoleon is, of course, to remove it from the equation. No Spanish uprising, no Portuguese uprising. Spain remains an ally of France and Portugal is under French control.
Prussia is subservient, Russia an ally, does Austria try again in 1809 with France essentially at peace on the continent and so on?
Where does this leave Britain to continue the fighting? All continental trade is gone.
Good hunting.
Ron